EQUITY MARKET NEWS UPDATE 30 NOV. 2015

The second quarter FY16 gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to come in at around 7.5 percent, compared to around 7 percent on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis. It compares to 8.4 percent same quarter last year. The range for the GDP figure is anywhere between 7.3 percent and 7.6 percent. 

The gross value added (GVA) is also expected to come in at around 7.5 percent versus 7.1 percent QoQ and the range is anywhere between 7.3 percent and 7.6 percent as well. In terms of sectors, agriculture is expected to see a slowdown on a QoQ basis possibly because of the lesser or deficit monsoon. It is hence expected to come in at around 1.1 percent and the range is anywhere between 0.5 percent and 2 percent this time. 

Industries, including construction, may come in at around 6.9 percent versus 6.5 percent QoQ. In fact, looking at the index of industrial production (IIP) data this time, it was indicative of the fact that maybe industries would be better for GDP this time. In terms of a couple of estimates within the industries, manufacturing is expected to lead the way with a growth of over 7 percent. Electricity is also expected to do much better. Even mining is expected to see a pick up at around 5 percent and around 4 percent on a sequential basis. 

Services, without construction, is expected to maintain its momentum. So around 9 percent compares to around 8.9 percent QoQ and around 10.4 percent on a YoY basis. With regard to private final consumption, which will be basically indicative of how consumption patterns are in the urban space, it is expected to scale up by around 40 bps QoQ to 7.8 percent versus 7.4 percent. 

Government final consumption is expected to come in at around 8 percent versus a 1.2 percent on a QoQ basis. Gross fixed capital formation, which is indicative of how capex is doing in the economy, is expected to pick up to around 6.9 percent versus 4.9 percent QoQ.

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