EQUITY MARKET NEWS UPDATE 30 NOV. 2015

The second quarter FY16 gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to come in at around 7.5 percent, compared to around 7 percent on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis. It compares to 8.4 percent same quarter last year. The range for the GDP figure is anywhere between 7.3 percent and 7.6 percent. 

The gross value added (GVA) is also expected to come in at around 7.5 percent versus 7.1 percent QoQ and the range is anywhere between 7.3 percent and 7.6 percent as well. In terms of sectors, agriculture is expected to see a slowdown on a QoQ basis possibly because of the lesser or deficit monsoon. It is hence expected to come in at around 1.1 percent and the range is anywhere between 0.5 percent and 2 percent this time. 

Industries, including construction, may come in at around 6.9 percent versus 6.5 percent QoQ. In fact, looking at the index of industrial production (IIP) data this time, it was indicative of the fact that maybe industries would be better for GDP this time. In terms of a couple of estimates within the industries, manufacturing is expected to lead the way with a growth of over 7 percent. Electricity is also expected to do much better. Even mining is expected to see a pick up at around 5 percent and around 4 percent on a sequential basis. 

Services, without construction, is expected to maintain its momentum. So around 9 percent compares to around 8.9 percent QoQ and around 10.4 percent on a YoY basis. With regard to private final consumption, which will be basically indicative of how consumption patterns are in the urban space, it is expected to scale up by around 40 bps QoQ to 7.8 percent versus 7.4 percent. 

Government final consumption is expected to come in at around 8 percent versus a 1.2 percent on a QoQ basis. Gross fixed capital formation, which is indicative of how capex is doing in the economy, is expected to pick up to around 6.9 percent versus 4.9 percent QoQ.

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MARKET UPDATE | Sensex, Nifty open flat | BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty | equity markets

In the 50-share index, GAIL, Dr Reddy’s, Wipro, Hero MotCorp and TCS were up between 0.40 per cent and 2.90 per cent in the early trade. Bosch, Cairn India, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and Idea Cellular were down between 0.59 per cent and 2.51 per cent. Nifty was down 12 points at 7,830.

The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty opened on a flat note on Friday tracking global markets. Sensex opened 14.21 points up at 25,856, while Nifty opened 0.85 points down at 7841.90.

The sugar stocks are likely to remain under pressure, on report that India’s sugar production rose by 33 per cent to 7.61 lakh tonnes till November 15th in the current marketing year on higher output from Maharashtra.

The US markets made a modestly lower closing in last session, the trade remained lackluster digesting the latest batch of US economic news, while there was modest drop in initial jobless claims, there was slightly bigger than expected increase in the index of leading economic indicators of Conference Board.

The Dow Jones industrial average on Thursday also fell 4.41 points, or 0.02 per cent, to 17,732.75. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index slipped 2.34 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 2,081.24. The Nasdaq composite lost 1.56 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 5,073.64.

The Baltic Index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities and is viewed as a good reflection of the health of world trade, also fell to a record low, having fallen 58.8 per cent from its peak this year. Back home, equity markets showed marvelous performance on Thursday, supported by government announced spate of policy reforms and hopes that US Fed’s rate hike will be gradual.

The 30-share Sensex ended up by 359.40 points, or 1.41 per cent, at 25,841.92 — its biggest single-day gain since October 5. The broad-based NSE Nifty reclaimed the 7,800-level before settling at 7,842.75, up 110.95 points, or 1.43 per cent.

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